United States v. Veysey
United States Court of Appeals for the Seventh Circuit
334 F.3d 600 (7th Cir. 2003)
John Veysey (defendant) intentionally burned or blew up four different houses, collecting insurance proceeds each time, before being arrested and charged with fraud and arson. At trial, an expert testified that the odds of four residential fires happening to one person by chance were about 1 in 1.773 trillion, though his methodology wrongly assumed the four fires were statistically independent and ignored other relevant factors like house age and materials. Veysey did not object to the flawed methodology itself, only to the broader claim that the testimony usurped the jury's role by concluding he was guilty. The trial court allowed the testimony, and Veysey was convicted and appealed.
Whether statistical evidence can be admissible to establish an element of a crime.